Here’s my capsule version of the Iowa Campaign of today, 01/3/2008:
The drive-by media is hammering the note that, if Romney wins in Iowa, it’ll be because he’s rich and has spent a lot of money. This view would have you believe that nobody actually likes Romney. Romney’s a winner, smart and charismatic. People who dismiss or underestimate Romney are engaged in fanciful thinking.
If Hillary doesn’t come in first in Iowa, it’ll be because John Edwards has been campaigning there for many years. This view would have you believe that nobody likes Edwards and that Iowa does not have a populist bent.
Iowans truly like Barak Obama but its mostly the younger voters who will support him, but not to the point of going out to vote on a cold night when they could be partying. This view ignores the Michelle Obama factor. Her recent appearances in Iowa were sensational and lit up the older crowd but her appearance on the scene may be too late.
Rudy Giuliani stands no chance of winning in Iowa. The liberal media is right on with this one but faces a real hammering when Super Tuesday arrives. Giuliani knows his own weaknesses among Republicans but you don’t prosecute the mob and then become mayor of New York City by quitting in the early rounds. Rudy Giuliani isn’t the shot fighter some pundits would have you believe he is.
John McCain went to New Hampshire to nail down his “must-win” support there. That seems to be an effective strategy. He’s jetting back to Iowa to make a last-minute push for a good showing. McCain will finish stronger than the pundits predict in Iowa. If McCain finishes third in Iowa, that’ll be a huge victory for a guy who knows how to both talk and fight. Unlike the other candidates, McCain can do both at the same time. While chewing gum, too.