Saturday, October 29, 2016
Sunday, October 9, 2016
John Edwards: A Senate Democrat’s 1980s Sex Scandal
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Tuesday, October 4, 2016
Gomorrah: Maria Pia Calzone as Imma Savastano
Yes, the Sundance Channel series Gomorrah is sub-titled. But
you don’t have to speak Italian to enjoy the show. The action is in the universal language. Love, hate, violence, revenge. The blank
spaces in the sub-titles are those four-letter words. You can easily learn how to swear in
Italian. That will impress your friends
in Milan.
But what I’m thinking about today is Immaculata. That is the
real name of the top clan guy’s wife in the Gomorrah series. I’ve heard a lot
of complaints here in the U.S. about the lack of female roles for actors over the
age of twenty nine. American TV and film
needs to write a role like the one given this woman.
Maria Pia Calzone portrays Immaculata (the Immaculate) with
serious verve, style, focus, and a mysterious womanhood. Watching her in the
series made me a bit ga-ga, I’ll admit. When
she hit up on one of my twitter posts, I discovered what it was like to walk on
air. I went around the house acting like a celebrity to our dog for at least a
week.
Imma’s a really unusual mom to her son Gennaro, a guileless
and unruly kid who is over the moon about Noemi. l Gennaro’s gone to great
lengths to impress Noemi. The girl is pretty and sexy but Imma can’t for a moment
take the little fool seriously.
Yet she knows enough not to interfere with her son’s yearnings.
She stands by and smiles as Gennaro romps around the place with Noemi both of
them in their underwear. Mothers, you don’t want this girl in your crime
family.
Eventually Gennaro matures and sees that Noemi is superficial.
That only happens after mother Imma has sent him to Honduras, ostensibly for
business reasons, but really to harden him in the cauldron of the drug cartels.
One Gennaro goes down to Honduras. Another Gennaro comes
back, shoots Imma’s mastiff for attacking him on his unannounced return. This
Genn
In previous episodes, Maria Pia Calzone appeared resigned to
her role as the mobster’s wife. Obedient. Caring. She’s not
shy about ruling the roost. But over all, Don Pietro had the final say about
all business matters and even some domestic ones – like the sofa they have in
the living room. He tosses the new sofa out because he thinks the Italian cops
have bugged it. Imma is quiet but absorbs everything about her surroundings.
She understands the business and has deep perception about the psychological
underpinnings of the males who surround her.
She takes over the clan expecting a rebellion from the old
school males allied with Don Pietro.
Sunday, October 2, 2016
Gomorrah : Tales of the Italian Ghetto
Just finished watching an Italian TV series called
Gomorrah. Rhymes with Camorra. Unlike the American Mafia or the Sicilian
Mafia, the camorras have no hierarchical structures. There is not one single camorra – there are several,
rather like constellations.
Organization is horizontal, rather than pyramidal. Positions
may be inherited. Rules are not always followed.
It seemed strange to me how the actors and directors of this
TV series were, in interviews, saying such nice things about American films and
TV series. Unless they were referring to
‘slick,’ I kind of thought the opposite. The Italian version of a crime epic
was grittier and more realistic than the ones I’ve watched – excepting perhaps “Casino”
where there is not much room for romanticism.
But even there, Gomorrah was hands-down more realistic than
any mafia conforming fare found on American TV and film. Hey listen, wiseguy, I’m
not putting down the American films like Godfather and Casino and TV shows like
“The Sopranos.” I thought they were great.
Gomorrah is different, that’s all I’m saying. Part of it is my own taste for realism. The
more realistic the better. So let’s face it, the comorras of southern Italy don’t
play very nice.
Gomorrah, offered by Sundance TV and still “On Demand” has
three directors. You may have noticed that earlier I used the plural when I
referred to the director (s).
There is Stefano Sollima, the key director of the character Pietro
Savanstano, head of the clan. His wife is named Imma for Immaculata – how’s
that for an Italian name? She gets her own director but in most cases she needs
one only to move her through the scenes. Then they have a son. His name is Gennaro. At first he’s clueless
but then grows into a chip off the old block.
His director is Claudioo Cupellini.
What’s up with three directors? Well, Stefano Sollima is the top man but the
other two have a great deal of independence.
There are three driving forces therefore. Just as in real life the
tensions occur between people, so it is with these characters. It’s fascinating – it’s conflict you can
feel. It gets under your skin. The characters are despicable and noble at the
same time. As in Game of Thrones, these three characters live in separate
kingdoms, separate domains.
Other details: The
screenwriter is Stefano Bises. The
filming makes use of 126 different locations, 225 actors, and hundreds of
actors. Italians go big if they go at all. The series transformed Naples into a
huge movie set.
Though some Italians have complained of bad publicity for
Naples (See Naples and Die) actor Salvatore Esposito, who plays Gennaro
Savastano, points out that tourism to Naples has increased, not the other way
around. I have to say that I am curious, too.
My father was a ‘Napolitano” (Neopolitan).
The stories are true. They come from Robert Savio’s book of
the same name: Gomorrah. Some of the
inspiration, too, comes from Matteo’s film which was adapted also from Savio’s
book.
Sunday, September 25, 2016
Excerpt From An Upcoming Novel
I've been so pre-occupied with writing my novel that I haven't posted in eons. It's not for lack of content. We're living in a speeded up universe. There are a whole lot of things I want to write about. And yet I must deprive myself. The low-hanging fruit will always be there -- and can be plucked from television where the universe can be ignored in favor of discussions on the existence of Unicorns.
So finish my novel I must. It's actually my second one. The first was published on Kindle only -- self-published, that is. I never tried to get a trade publisher for it. Looking back, perhaps I should have. It's entertaining, at least, and well-written if a bit dry in tone. I used a journalistic style, probly influenced by French writers -- thinking right now I was big on Albert Camus --
You should take a look. Give me a pass on the title: "Last Chance." I didn't name it myself and should have held to its original title: "Aurelio Must Die." But if you want a lively read, look for it under my writing name : Anthony Ventre You'll find a couple of interesting stories on there.
Cut to the present. My current novel is tentatively titled "One to the Heart" or "Aim for the Heart," not sure yet. I picked a very funny paragraph (at least to me and my weird sense of humor) to excerpt:
" Being an altar boy was an honor later besmirched by sex abuse scandals covered up by the Catholic Church. But during Costello’s childhood, it was an insider’s track on God, the angels, and the martyr saints, a mystical dance to a background tune of Gregorian Chant.
The shared experience imparted to each of them a sort of deep and latent intimacy. The Masons might have their secrets handshakes and clannish power-seeking conspiracies, but altar boys held the high cards at the gambling tables inside the Gates of Heaven.
So finish my novel I must. It's actually my second one. The first was published on Kindle only -- self-published, that is. I never tried to get a trade publisher for it. Looking back, perhaps I should have. It's entertaining, at least, and well-written if a bit dry in tone. I used a journalistic style, probly influenced by French writers -- thinking right now I was big on Albert Camus --
You should take a look. Give me a pass on the title: "Last Chance." I didn't name it myself and should have held to its original title: "Aurelio Must Die." But if you want a lively read, look for it under my writing name : Anthony Ventre You'll find a couple of interesting stories on there.
Cut to the present. My current novel is tentatively titled "One to the Heart" or "Aim for the Heart," not sure yet. I picked a very funny paragraph (at least to me and my weird sense of humor) to excerpt:
" Being an altar boy was an honor later besmirched by sex abuse scandals covered up by the Catholic Church. But during Costello’s childhood, it was an insider’s track on God, the angels, and the martyr saints, a mystical dance to a background tune of Gregorian Chant.
The shared experience imparted to each of them a sort of deep and latent intimacy. The Masons might have their secrets handshakes and clannish power-seeking conspiracies, but altar boys held the high cards at the gambling tables inside the Gates of Heaven.
Costello stepped
out of the sedan at the convenience store. At first, he seemed not to notice
Richie Sparo scrunched down in the cab of his truck. Richie shifted his eyes
right to watch Costello working his hands around to his hip, adjusting his belt
holster and moving his handcuffs around to a more comfortable position.
Costello wasn’t particularly tall, but
managed to look bigger than he actually was. It was mainly due to the way he
carried himself. A muscular frame lurked beneath his leather jacket like the body
of some coiled beast. "
Sunday, July 31, 2016
Jesse James, and Wyatt Earp, and the Massacre at Wounded Knee: AMC’s #TheAmericanWest
When I was a kid playing ‘Cowboys and Indians,’ most of us
wanted to be ‘Indians.’ But whatever
roles were play that old wild west fascination stays with you, and for good
reason. Naturally, I was attracted to the AMC 8 – part Series called “The
American West,” which wrapped up last night with gusto.
America’s move to the west was bloody and unpredictable. Law
and order were rare commodities beyond the frontier where the valiant Lakota
Sioux fight to maintain their lands and their fierce independence.
Disenfranchised southerners like Jesse James continue their rebellion against
the north by robbing trains and banks.
His notoriety becomes so great that the governor of the state of
Missouri puts out a tempting 5,000 reward for his death or capture. In
Tombstone Arizona, Wyatt Earp has built a reputation as a staunch law and order
man but some people out west see no difference between him and the outlaws he
challenges.
The season finale,
last of eight episodes, did a nice job of putting things together. We begin with the reminder that, with a bounty
on his head, Jesse James has become paranoid and withdrawn. As he re-emerges
from the shadows to plan new robberies, the only people he trusts are the Ford
brothers, Charlie and Rob. Big mistake
to trust either of them, but his brother Frank has given up the outlaw life and
returned to farming. He has to have someone to help him rob banks.
Unfortunately, Rob Ford hears the jingle of cash in his head and goes to the
governor of the state to get clearance for what he plans. If he’s to kill Jesse James, he wants to be
sure he gets the reward money and immunity from prosecution. The governor is
only too willing – and the Ford brothers, working together according to this
presentation, concoct a ruse to disarm Jesse and then Rob Ford murders him by
shooting him in the back of the head.
The great thing about the latter part of the 19th
century is that great strides were made in photography. With the martyred
outlaw (he was a hero to the southern rebels after the Civil War) laid to rest
in his coffin, we can see in still photos all over the internet how Jesse James
looked, just as 2,000 morbid onlookers passed by as he was displayed on the
main street of a town in Missouri. Google it.
Ike Clanton is still bristling over his encounter with Wyatt
Earp whom he feels cheated him out of the three thousand dollar reward money he
was supposed to get for giving up the names of some outlaws Wyatt was chasing.
Said outlaws ran out of luck before Wyatt could get to them. They were shot
down by some other outlaws, and there was no reward money to be paid. By his
interpretation of events, Wyatt Earp still owed him money and when he’s
humiliated publicly in a saloon, Clanton threatens to kill all three of the
Earp brothers. In the Tombstone of that day, it was well to take such threats
seriously, and the Earp brothers, joined by the notorious gambler Doc Holliday,
were headed for the showdown known as the ‘Gunfight at OK Corral.’ While it’s called that, the gun fight didn’t
happen at the corral; it occurred several blocks away on Fremont Street. On the
face of it, Fremont Street doesn’t have the same ring to it as does the OK
Corral.
The gunfight was likely over in less time than it would take
to describe it. In thirty seconds and
thirty shots, three of Clanton’s gang lay dead, both of Wyatt’s brothers and
Doc Holliday were wounded, while Wyatt walked away unscathed. It was something
Ike Clanton wasn’t willing to forget. The road to revenge was long and arduous
with Clanton getting the edge at one point by killing Morgan Earp. Here’s where the life of Wyatt Earp poses
some really difficult philosophical and moral questions.
What is to be done in lands without laws? Who is the outlaw and who is the righteous
man? The law was so arbitrary in Tombstone that Wyatt took it upon himself to
avenge his brother’s death, tracking down and killing several of Clanton’s
gang. The Earps had already spent two
weeks in jail for the OK Corral gunfight before a judge released them for lack
of evidence. Both sides, the Clantons
and the Earps declared that the other side fired first.
Consider that the real Wyatt Earp, who can be seen also in
internet still life photographs, had learned hard lessons during his years as a
lawman and an outlaw. He thought it best to get out of Dodge (actually
Tombstone) and headed to California where he got a job as a consultant to the
burgeoning film industry. In one of the great ironies of the American west,
Wyatt Earp takes under his wing a young actor named Marion Morrison. Morrison
would later change his name to John Wayne and become an icon of western movies,
making good use of the tales Wyatt Earp told him of the ‘bad old days.’
But what about Sitting Bull?
The American West closed out the tale of the rise and fall of the great
Lakota Sioux Chief in its tragic ending in captivity. When Sitting Bull returns
from the east where he’s been traveling with Buffalo Bill Cody’s Wild West
Show, he’s disillusioned in what he has seen. The teeming industrialized cities
are a far cry from the freedom and independence of the plains.
While he’s been away from home, the Ghost Dance movement has
inflamed the passions of the proud Lakota Sioux. The religion of the Indians,
the dances and the songs, are meant to revive the spirit and the old ways of
the Indian nation, but they have worried the U.S. government with fears of a
major uprising. Sitting Bull being the best known leader of the Sioux is a
particular worry and a detachment of troops is sent to arrest him. The chief’s followers resist and Sitting Bull,
aged 59, is shot to death by a soldier in the melee that follows.
Government policy has been to differentiate ‘hostile’ Indians
from others according to whether they live on the reservations provided them or
not. In other words, if you’re caught by the Army off the reservation, you’re a
hostile. But hundreds of Indians were
not willing to give up their freedom and traditional ways of life to adopt the
life styles of the eastern intruders into their traditional homeland.
A few hundred gather their belongings and march off from the
reservation to make camp at Wounded Knee, South Dakota. When the president orders the 7th
Cavalry to round up hostiles, there is a bitter confrontation at the Sioux
settlement. Versions of the massacre may
vary, but the result was more than 200 mostly unarmed Sioux men, women, and
children killed by the Army, with 65 Cavalry casualties.
There were many famous names who provided interest and
insight into the series – people like Kiefer Southerland, Sen. John McCain, and
of course Robert Redford who produced the series. There were also a phalanx of
distinguished wild west historians who commented on various aspects of the
westward movement.
Perhaps the most stirring commentary was provided by Lakota Sioux writer/filmmaker Larry Pourier. We
find out toward the end that Pourier is one of the direct descendants of
Sitting Bull. He is deliberate and calm in demeanor but unbroken in spirit as
he tells the tale of his ancestors. “The death of Sitting Bull marks the death
of our culture,” he says at one point, in his deliberate and measured way of
speaking. This final bookending of the series is especially hard hitting when
it shows real life still pictures of the December 1890 Massacre at Wounded
Knee. In this case, a picture is indeed
worth a thousand words, and perhaps that is why Pourier’s commentary is more about wisdom than words.
The pictures themselves can be found on the internet and are
horrific in their impact: One still picture of the scene shows two men standing
in a mass grave dug for the pile of Indians who lie in a heap outside the pit. A
line of grizzled cavalry veterans stand by with guns and beaten expressions.Another
still is of Chief Big Foot, half sitting
up in the snow, frozen into his rigor mortis shape, his arms and fingers positioned
as if he is holding a rifle or a bow.
Speaks for itself.
Thursday, June 23, 2016
AMC “The American West” TV Series Goes Beyond Myth
Listen up, Cowboys and Cowgirls...
There's more to those tall tales of the Old West than you know. So I'm finding out as I took a look at the new AMC TV series produced by Robert Redford. As you know, Redford gets things pretty straight when it comes to matters of Native Americans and figures of the Wild West.
Tom Selleck and Mark
Harmon and Kiefer Sutherland are identifiable presences on the first episode of this series detailing
the American expansion after the Civil War. Other lesser known experts and historians of
the American west figure prominently too in the series. Viewers of historical
tales will recognize them as they
recount details of interest to history lovers and people who long for the
grandeur of the west, it’s big sky and wide open areas.
There were vast unsettled tracts of the American continent
that lured people west in the pursuit of happiness. Very often the new settlers
found not happiness, but the opposite.
One of the first and greatest impacts of western expansion was
the building of the railroads to the western coast. Native Americans watched
over this migration with a jaundiced eye. Over the course of a mere thirty
years, more than 430 million acres of land would be settled.
But there were winners and losers. Among the losers were
southerners who had lost everything except their lives and were determined to
get something back. More than a few of
these became outlaws and resisted the occupation of southern lands by union
soldiers and the carpetbaggers who moved in to capitalize on the northern
Army’s victory.
Among the outlaw rebels was Jesse James, at the end of the
Civil War a member of a fringe Confederate military group known as Quantrell’s
Raiders. The year is 1865. Not part of the regular Confederate Army,
Quantrell’s Raiders were guerilla fighters who made up their own rules. Their
targets were not always military targets, nor were their motives always
strictly patriotic.
In the ambush and killing of two union soldiers, Jesse James
was shot and captured by the Union Army. Forced to pledge allegiance to the
union cause, the outlaw was still in prison four years later when the Civil War
ended.
Going back home to Missouri, he found destruction and
bitterness. Missouri was split in terms of its allegiances. Jesse James found a
third path – that of the outlaw. Teaming up with his brother Frank, he formed
an outlaw gang that would become legendary, focusing its first heists on the supplies of the union troops he found
oppressive. There were many such small rebellions reported in newspapers of the
era, but the James Gang struck the high notes that attracted attention
throughout the country.
I started watching the documentary, produced by the
estimable Robert Redford, with the perception that each episode would focus on
a single individual or event. It was soon apparent, however, that Redford’s
intent was to present a coherent overview which gathers seeming separate
stories into a whole.
The Native Americans who migrated thousands of years ago
across the land bridge that linked Siberia with Alaska is brought in with a
sweeping image of natural beauty. By the time the railroads were pushing
westward, Native Americans living in the west numbered to an estimated 300,000.
Among these was the brilliant military commander Crazy Horse, then a young
warrior who watched the incursion into lands that had belonged to his people
for centuries.
In 1866, Crazy Horse carried out a vast military campaign
that terrorized the new settlers in Wyoming Territory. In a span six months,
says a narrator, dozens of settlers were killed, seriously restricting movement
through the territory. President Ulysses S. Grant and General William Sherman
received this news with a great deal of displeasure. Grant wants the nation to
know that he won’t tolerate chaos on the frontier, threatening his plan of
unifying the U.S. from coast to coast in the establishment of a single
nation. He orders Sherman, commander of
America’s western Army divisions to do battle with Crazy Horse. Late in 1866, a
thousand new U.S. troops poured into Lakota territory.
Crazy Horse faces a challenge of numbers, technology, and
superior firepower as he follows a vision which sustained him as a youth – that
he couldn’t be killed and that bullets of the enemy would not find him in
battle. He comes up with a plan to lure the U.S. Army from Fort Kearney,
Wyoming Territory, into open plains where he can conduct an inspired assault. When the troops follow him to the
field, he rides his pony horizontally across the field of fire, just out of
range of their fusillades. At the moment the soldiers are reloading the
muskets, they are attacked by Crazy Horse’s warriors. Almost one hundred
soldiers are killed in what became known as the “Battle of 100 Slain.”
The Crazy Horse legend
grew as President Grant paced the White House and agonized over the defeat.
Grant therefore had to deal with two crises, the rebellions of the recently
defeated south, and the rising up of the Sioux nation to stop migration to the west. To deal with
the Sioux in the west, Grant picks one of his best Civil War generals, the
flamboyant George Armstrong Custer.
Everyone knows of ‘Custer’s Last Stand,’ one of the most
ignominious defeats of the U.S. Army in battle. Did this episode of “The
American West,” have anything interesting or peculiar to add? That Custer
graduated last in his class at West Point Military Academy perhaps? That he
distinguished himself for his aggressiveness and success in the Civil War is
probably better known. But when he was
given command of the crack 7th Army in the west, his fate was
sealed.
Interesting Facts:
Jesse James father had gone west on the Gold Rush and died
there. His mother was a single parent.
Until Jesse James robbed banks in Missouri, not a single
bank in the U.S. had ever had an armed robbery.
175 million acres of land were deeded to railroad companies
as part of President’s Lincoln’s plan to
move people westward from the overly-developed east and from the devastated
southern regions. This was more land than the entire state of Texas. The
railroads then sold land to settlers moving in from the east.
By 1865, an estimated 300,000 Native Americans had migrated over the
land bridge from Siberia to the American West. Among these the most populous and powerful peoples
living in the west were the Lakota Sioux.
The distinguished General George Armstrong Custer graduated last in his class at West
Point Military Academy. Yet he distinguished himself for his aggressiveness and
success in the Civil War.
Saturday, June 11, 2016
The Americans: The Spies Next Door
The Beautiful Keri Russell, matriarchal killer KGB Agent & Humble Housewife
. The Jennings live next door to the Beemans. The Jennings are KGB. The Beemans are FBI. I’m talking about a show called “The Americans.”
Old fans of the show will know what happened in the past as Russian spies Philip and Elizabeth Jennings settle into a tidy suburban neighborhood where their next-door neighbor and FBI agent San Beeman lives. The Jennings have two children, Paige and Henry.
Paige is the oldest, smart enough to figure out that some things about her parents are downright unsettling. Paige has seen her parents disappear too many times into the night not to be suspicious. She pressures her mother to eventually tell her the truth. When she finally learns the truth, Paige finds it too burdensome and shares the shocking news with her pastor.
The irony of it all is that, in the Jennings search for identity authenticity, in their complete success at blending in, their daughter Paige has become religious. How this fits into the communist atheist ideology creates an unbearable tension. Meanwhile, younger brother Henry is still clueless about his parents’ espionage. Season four begins with the suggestion that the Jennings’ secret lives may be unraveling.
One of the things that continues to amaze me about “The Americans,”, was that I am still fooled by the disguises Elizabeth and Philip Jennings use while they’re on their midnight forays. Having missed the first two seasons, I began watching last year. I know that disguises are a regular part of each episode. So why am I so continuously fooled during those first few seconds of a scene where Philip or Elizabeth are out and about doing dead drops or meeting with contacts for such nefarious assignments as obtaining samples of a deadly Department of Defense bio-weapon from a traitor scientist?
Maybe it’s the routine and understated way Elizabeth and Philip go about their business in general that disarms and beguiles me. The same two parents gaily sitting with their kids at a picnic table in a public park are the same two parents carrying a naked male body from the bedroom where they’ve killed him in the interest of world peace. Elizabeth has the nude male by the ankles and Philip has the shoulders as another man watches the ‘cleanup’ casually and with his arms crossed. It’s like – “Hi there, Elizabeth, let’s put the lamp over here on the nightstand and would you please help me remove this body and send him down the laundry chute?”
This first episode of the season reminds us of who Philip is and how’s he’s become what he’s become. Philip is having trouble dealing with his role in life as a Russian spy sent to blend into the American landscape. While the whole purpose is to project an image of family life and marital bliss, it’s a dirty, ugly business that he’s in. Dedicated as he is to the Soviet ideology, he’s bothered by a lot of what he has to do. How did he become so hardened, so cruel, so methodical in his murderous ways?
In the flashback of his dreams, you see that he grew up with nothing, that as a young boy he was deprived, had to filch for his existence, was beaten and bullied by other kids competing for dominance in a harsh world. Fed up with being tormented, he rises up in anger, beating another kid to death with a rock, blood splattering all over his face.
He does what he has to do, that’s the message, but it doesn’t make for quiet peaceful sleep. Philip is deeply troubled, often unable to reconcile his troubles with the fantasy role he’s expected to play as a spy. This brings him to an EST meeting. Young audiences may not know what those things are but can imagine a group of unlimited size where people are encouraged to unburden themselves of their deepest inner truths. This is supposed to bring sighs of relief. While the hundreds of people gathered to witness this testimonial exhibition of innermost thoughts applaud Philip for his minor epiphanies, he just can’t cough up those early childhood murders. The old KGB, and even the current FSB, would find such notions frivolous, foolish, another sign of the decadence of the West.
The EST meeting did produce one interesting result. The wife of FBI Agent Stan Beeman also attends the EST meeting and the two neighbors meet for a drink later. One of the unusual juxtapositions of the show is that the Beeman family lives next door. Stan has become increasingly suspicious of his seemingly quiet and harmless next-door neighbors and his wife has been seen cozying up to neighbor Philip in the bar. He confronts Philip who has just returned from a meeting with the traitorous scientist – the one that provided the sample vial of the latest bio-warfare germ – and slams him against the wall.
“Are you screwing my wife?” he bellows.
Philip wasn’t of course, though it’s pretty clear he’d sleep with anyone if directed to do so by his handler, Gabriel. In this episode Philip appears with two wives, not an uncommon thing for KGB operatives in search of sensitive espionage material. Philip has his KGB wife Elizabeth and also poses as ‘Clark” Hanson, the FBI agent husband of Martha Hanson who spies for him in the FBI headquarters to which Stan Beeman is assigned.
Gabriel is intent upon getting the secreted lab sample of the deadly bio-germ created by Department of Defense scientists at Fort Dietrich. When Stan Beeman slams Philip up against the wall, there is considerable pucker factor as the body slam is hard enough to break the vial and unleash the deadly microbes on Washington.
How deadly is it? As the traitor scientist who delivers the vial describes it: “This (substance) is to meningitis what Bubonic Plague is to the common cold.” The reference stems from Elizabeth and Philip’s inoculation with meningitis vaccine as a preventative – a useless one at that.
Among the pitfalls of living in a free country is that your daughter might become religious. That’s already happened to the Jennings’ daughter Paige, who last season found out about her parent’s strange nighttime occupations. Now she’s intensely curious and in a morning breakfast scene asks her mother why her father left their house at 3 in the a.m. Keri Russell as Elizabeth Jennings manages to be both maternal and reassuring as she reveals her hard ideological beliefs.
“He’s meeting a source,” says Elizabeth.
“Is it dangerous?”
“No, it’s more about getting people to trust you, to help them understand that you want the same thing that they want, to make the world safe for everyone.”
Paige finds her parent’s occupation a tremendous burden to bear and confesses it to her friend and counselor Pastor Tim. The Jennings have already stressed that they would both go to prison if Paige tells someone else and Paige is panicked at the thought. Pastor Tim presses her to find out more of what her parents’ actually do and “then we’ll decide what to do from there.”
Also caught up in the web of lies and counter-lies is Nina Krilovna, released from prison and working with Russian-Jewish scientist Anton Baklanov. As part of her penance for past anti-Soviet sins, she’s supposed to keep an eye on the regretful Baklanov who’s working in a Russian laboratory. They’re both trapped between their personal feelings and the required obeisance to the insufferable state.
The operatives are working on the blunt edge of politics in their different political systems. Behind the friendly smiles, and the agreeable appearances is the knife edge of competing ideologies.
Animal Kingdom -- TNT's New Drama Has Crazy Fun in the Sun
THE BOYS OF ANIMAL KINGDOM
I used to live in California and I kind of miss it. And then
again I don’t. One of the things in the don’t column stems from people like the
characters in TNT’s new show “Animal Kingdom.” I think it’s a great show but
that’s because I’m not living that life. Some people not living that life will
think that the theme is a bit far-fetched. It’s not though.
Julia died of an overdose of bad heroin. She’s lying on the
couch beside her seventeen year old son who is too stunned to cry. The
paramedics come to pronounce the mom dead. The funeral was just another
extended horror for poor J. He’s gone to
live with his grandma but she’s no ordinary grandma. She runs a violent crew—her
three sons and her right-hand man in the criminal enterprise – Baz.
At the grave site, everyone’s all silent and wooden when a former
neighbor woman issues a stark warning:
“They don’t belong here, J. Don’t stand there wid’ ‘em. Don’t.”
Maybe it was good advice but it came at the wrong time. J’s
mother is lying cold and dead as Dina, the former neighbor, speaks out against
the Cody family: “Maybe she (your mom) was weak but she did everything she
could to protect you from them.”
Nothing like getting cheerful warnings like that at your
mother’s funeral, especially when you’re a seventeen year old high school
student with no family, no means of support, and no prospects. J thanks Dina
the neighbor but demurs. Craig speaks up for the Cody family: “Get the hell out
of here.”
Would anyone else like
to say anything? Mercifully not. The cemetery workers lower the casket into
the ground and the various family members make a pass around the grave before
everyone leaves. The Cody boys are irreverent as they comment on the
ceremony: “I guess we’re Lutheran. Who
knew?” Deran responds: “It (the funeral) must have been the cheapest.” Sad, pathetic, and all too real.
Pope also forced into the next caper the gang planned to
pull. That he immediately wants to commit more crime just one day after his
release from prison defines him. Pope has a sociopathic personality. He’s
fiendish, diabolical, violent, and dangerous and calculating. If there’s
anything to add it’s that he’s a creep – with no sense of personal boundaries.
And the boys play silly games like playing basketball by
popping food into J’s girlfriend Nikki’s mouth which will earn her $200. J tells he she doesn’t have to play but she
seems to like it. Though he’s not a blood family member, Baz gives J some
friendly advice about how to play things with Uncle Pope who feels displaced by
the newcomer.
Not all the games are silly, however. They’re the one where
they rent a group of junkies and confine them in a vehicle. It’s a violent
takeover, but since they’re junkies they can be paid off with drugs. The
purpose of the confinement is so that they spread their DNA about the vehicle
they use in a robbery. This is a clever ruse to confuse the forensics people
when the police find the vehicle.
The heist itself is a jewelry store robbery in which the
crew crashes an SUV into a luxury jewelry boutique. Deran drives the getaway
car and picks up his brother with the loot, but they bump into security in a
back alley. One of the security officers gets crushed against a dumpster. The
other one fires and hits Craig in the shoulder.
You can’t blame J for being a little freaked out by this
family now. He’s gone back to his mom’s old apartment and got the phone number
of a guy he believes is his dad. A man answers but hangs up when J can’t even
tell the guy what his father’s last name is. So it’s back to grandma’s house
except he runs into the dope dealer who wants the money J’s mom owes him. J’s
angry, not about to take any crap from anyone. He overpowers the guy and is
this close to shooting him: “She’s (my mom) dead from the crap that you sold
her.” Then he’s out on his bicycle in the cleansing air of the boardwalk,
staring at the rolling, healing ocean waves. When he returns to the beach
house, things are even more disturbing. Baz and Pope are cauterizing Craig’s
bullet wound, while Smurf is singing lullabies to her crying ‘baby’ last born
son.
Tuesday, May 24, 2016
Get a Load of the American Revolution : TURN, Washington’s Spies
I remember when I was a kid
that I didn’t much relate to the American Revolution. My parents emigrated from
Italy. It’s fair to say that I wasn’t much interested in Garibaldi either. I blame
it all on my boring Social Studies teacher who didn’t seem to like his job.
Trust me when I say this because, since my high school days, I’ve known several
brilliant social studies teachers who made history come alive. I know the
difference. My point being that my
education about the American Revolution came very late in my life.
There’s a TV series now
that I watch regularly. It’s the right combination of realism and romance,
often sending me to Wikipedia or books or historical web sites to check out
scenes, mentions, events in the series.
TURN: Washington’s Spies is
a welcome event for history buffs who
like to see history in action. Includes
me. The conflict between Captain Simcoe who leads the rough and ready Rodger’s
Rangers and the more orthodox British
Army forces led by Major Hewlett is something I wouldn’t know about if I didn’t
watch the show.
On the other hand, I was
aware of the profoundly seriously attitude that George Washington took toward
traitors who undermined the Continental Army. The opening scene of one episode
depicts the execution by hanging of two men.
It’s not proven that they exposed General Washington’s
Culper spy ring but they were hanged on charges of counterfeiting. It’s pouring
rain as the offenders are pushed off the scaffolding in a grisly and shocking
scene that pulls no punches. The hangman has flubbed the job resulting in the
beheading of one man. The other man keeps his head and was hanged properly. He
can be seen vomiting white bile as a soldier steps forward with a pistol to
deliver the coup de gras.
It’s the American
Revolution form of ‘scared straight’—the executions are a lesson to the
observers. The execution depicted of Sergeant Thomas Hickey fits with the
official documents of the American Revolution, and so was that of Colonel
Bradford who stood beside him on the gallows.
Who knew?
The show is based on a book
by author Alexander Rose. Gotta’ give AMC credit for knowing a good thing when
they read it.
Saturday, May 7, 2016
The Man Who (Probably) Won’t be King
By Erich Straub May
4, 2016
It’s only fitting that Donald Trump officially became the
republican nominee for president on George F. Will’s 75th birthday. The
conservative columnist and longtime trickle down advocate must be crying in his
birthday cake. Perhaps sensing the impending doom, he penned a column Monday
calling for the party to sabotage Trump in the general election so that Hillary
Clinton, whom he probably despises more than Trump, can be the next president.
I can think of nothing more festive than cutting of your nose to spite your
face.
He’s asked repeated and desperately: what’s become of the
Grand Old Party? The party of Lincoln, Eisenhower, Reagan, and now... Trump?
The party that is supposed to be all about business and financial discipline is
investing its hopes in 2016 in a junk bond that looks like a sure loser? Even
though the smartest guys in the room continue to warn them - like the wise
uncle who keeps warning you that the shady investment you are preparing to sink
your retirement into is a Ponzi scheme - that Trump is a conman.
You can’t slap a 35% tariff on every company that opens a
factory overseas, and magically bring millions of manufacturing jobs back to
hollowed out cities. You can’t beat Isis by banning all Muslims, and dropping
carpet bombs all over the Middle East. Nor can you win with Hispanics, blacks,
and women when more than two thirds of each group dislikes you, by simply
rebranding yourself and claiming that it was all an act.
But Trump supporters believe all of those things and then
some. And they are willing to invest in him; no matter how many times George
Will, Mitt Romney, or Bill Kristol hold interventions trying to convince them
otherwise. Despite his motto that all he does is win, Donald Trump, the man who
will now be king of the party, is the most despised frontrunner (and now
presumptive nominee) perhaps in the history of American politics, and the NeverTrumpers
won’t let us forget it.
Less than a month ago, it looked as if the Trump Train had
been knocked off the track - if not totally derailed - after a series of gaffes
and a humiliating loss in Wisconsin. But as always, Trump has rebounded
astoundingly and won seven straight states, with a majority in each, and driven
Ted Cruz into the political grave that he had been standing over for weeks.
While Trump is now all but assured of being the nominee, assuming he can
outlast the robust John Kasich who is still clamoring about electability to a
room full of crickets, he certainly has a steep climb ahead of him if he is to
make all of this worth anything for his supporters.
Although he argues that the early poll numbers are just
another ruse in the rigged political system, Trump is not projecting well in
November - to say the least. Even in reliably red states like Arizona, where
John McCain has held his senate seat since before Trump built his first
lemonade stand, Trump is losing and democrats are showing signs of seizing once
unthinkable ground. Hoping that record numbers of conservatives will stay home
if Trump is the nominee, even veteran stalwarts like McCain could face
competitive races without excitement for the presidential nominee.
Aside from their claim that he’s not a real conservative,
that’s the primary reason why the establishment is fighting Trump so hard,
despite the fact that the voters have spoken. In the past, they were willing to
put up a weak candidate and roll the dice, while focusing on holding or
expanding their house and senate seats. With a Candidate Trump, they fear it
would likely be lose-lose. Every republican’s worst nightmare would become a
reality: President Hillary Clinton, a democratic senate, and a liberal leaning
Supreme Court in 2017.
They know that they don’t want that, but they can’t seem to
agree on a plan to prevent it. Like the democrats in 1968, the party has become perhaps irreparably
fractured, and now seems to have divided
into four separate factions:
1. The Trumpers – or “Trumpeters” as Sarah
Palin calls them. Die-hard Trump supporters who will vote for him no matter
what. They have been reliable at the ballot box, representing about 30-40% of
the primary electorate, depending on the state, and will likely drive his
turnout in November. They are dedicated, but won’t be a big enough group to
help him against Hillary.
2. The Reluctants - moderate and somewhat conservative voters who may
have not been in love with Trump at the beginning, but have resigned themselves
to the fact that he will be the nominee. They probably preferred somebody like
Jeb Bush and then Kasich, but will support Trump before they will allow Hillary
to become president.
3. The Never-Trumpers
- a mixture of party insiders and donors, neocons, and very conservative voters
who will never accept Trump as their nominee no matter what. They supported Ted
Cruz either outright or as the only alternative to Trump. They will either stay
home on election day or vote for a third party candidate. A small number may
even swallow the poison and vote for Hillary.
4. The Party Imploders
- a small, but increasing, group of establishment republicans who despise Trump
(and Cruz for that matter). They are planning a secret sabotage mission, aiming
to see Trump lose in a landslide, so they can tell everyone “we told you so”
and rebuild the party before 2020. Sort of like a drug addict who needs to go
on a terrible, near death binge to realize just how far they’ve fallen and
finally seek help.
Add it all up and yes, Trump is almost certain to lose in
November. The NeverTrumpers keep repeating that refrain as if we don’t get it,
but what they don’t mention is the fact that any republican is likely to lose
in November. Trump is just being blamed for what’s a far deeper structural
problem. Most experts believe the republican candidate will start off with
around 190 electoral votes (assuming they hold all red states) which means they
need to add 80. If she wins all of the reliably blue states that have voted for
a democrat in every election since 1992, Hillary will likely start out with 242
electoral votes, meaning she needs just 28 to win.
The map is simply more blue than it is red. In the six
elections since 1992, no democrat has scored fewer than 251 electoral votes.
The only two who lost - Al Gore and John Kerry scored 266 and 251 respectively
- came razor close to winning. If one state flipped the other way the outcome
would have been reversed. In that same time, republicans have scored fewer than
200 three times: 1992 (168), 1996 (159), and 2008 (173), and Mitt Romney
managed just 206 in 2012. George W. Bush - the only Republican to win in that
timeframe - scored just 271 in 2000 (the fewest by any president ever to win1)
and 286 in 2004 (by far the fewest of any incumbent to win re-election).
To reach 270, the republican would need to win Florida, Ohio,
Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, and North Carolina. Hillary would need to win
Florida. That’s it. 242+29=271. She could concede Ohio and all the others and
it wouldn’t matter. In other words, Republicans MUST win Florida - and a lot of
other states where they are at a disadvantage because of changing demographics
and their inability to win over hispanics and younger voters. Yes, a Paul Ryan
looks bright and cheery compared to Trump, but he almost certainly doesn’t get
to 270 in November either - especially with a large contingent of Trumpeters
exiting the party.
While we could debate the merits of abolishing the electoral
college (and Trump may try that) in short, republicans have to basically run
the table in the swing states (or steal a big blue state) to have a chance of
winning. To be realistic, the main alternative to Trump – Ted Cruz would not
have fared much better in a general election (and some think would actually do
worse). John Kasich does much better in a hypothetical match-up with Clinton
than Trump or Cruz. He leads in many national polls, and also in key swing
states like Ohio, but pretty much everywhere else in the primary he was either
an afterthought, or part of a ruse to trip Trump up, or both.
Marco Rubio was widely touted as the party’s best prospect in
what was supposed to be a deep bench, and he was rumored to be the only
candidate that the Clinton campaigned was truly worried about facing. He was
liked among large sections of the primary electorate, but always seemed to be
their second choice and just couldn’t position himself as the clear Trump
alternative. Although it seems unlikely, Trump could tap him as his VP to try
to lock up Florida where he remains popular.
As Trump proclaims emphatically: “we want winners, not
losers”. Like it or not, Kasich and Rubio look like losers. Trump looks like a
winner, even though he’s despised by the masters of his own party. You can
argue that he’s certainly not the standard bearer for the conservative movement
(whatever that is these days), but he is going to finish the primary having won
35 states and over 12 million votes - more than the record set by George W. Bush
when he ran away with the nomination in 2000. And he’ll have done it with the
establishment, most of the conservative media, and big party donors, having
fought him tooth and nail all the way. So, obviously somebody likes what he’s
selling.
This election highlights not only the problems of our archaic
electoral system, but with the nominating process as well: candidates have to
navigate a series of primaries and caucuses spread out all over the country in
no discernible pattern or organization. Try to win over conservative,
evangelical voters in one area, shift to moderates in another, while wooing
party elites and donors, and then lump everything together into something that
looks palatable to half of the population. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.
It’s a messy system, but perhaps it’s better than the
alternative. In the past, the voters had virtually no say in who the party’s
nominee was. Even in 1968, when democrats - furious with Johnson and the war in
Vietnam - propelled Bobby Kennedy and Eugene McCarthy to huge wins in the
primaries, the party insiders simply overruled them and nominated Johnson’s VP
Hubert Humphrey anyway. The RNC wishes they had that power this year, so they
could kick Trump to the curb. But pulling something like that would not only
play right into Trump’s argument that the system is rigged, but likely result
in a bloody mess like the one that unfolded in Chicago that summer.
The party insiders should resign themselves to the fact that
it simply didn’t work this year. Voters are just done with everything
Washington and increasingly distrustful of the candidates they continually
propped up as the obvious choice. They simply were not willing to settle on
another bland guy talking about policy issues, medicaid subsidies, and tax
reform to balance the budget. Not when they had a torch wielding maniac ready
to burn the whole system down, and replace it with a giant wall.
Trump will most likely not be the next president, but all of
the experts have been wrong up to this point. He is a wildcard and who knows
what tricks he still has up his sleeve. He may be going into the general
election with the highest negatives of any candidate in history, but his
opponent will be going in with the second highest. It’s a remarkable twist of
irony in an already surreal election season. Despite what democrats (and many
republicans) may think, Hillary is not invincible and Trump is going to empty
the quiver. If she thinks she is going to coast into the white house, she does
so at her own risk.
Regardless of what happens, you have to give Trump credit. He
started out as a reality show character, displayed almost no policy knowledge
(nor desire to develop any), no discernible organization, and refused to play
the traditional parlor games of party politics. He didn’t win with smoke and
mirrors so much as by sheer force of personality and brand name. He will likely
finish as he started, which is a caricature of a candidate. But something
strange happened on the way to the carnival: Trump became a major party
nominee, dispatching seasoned politicians like it was child’s play, and
breaking every written (and unwritten) rule along the way. And this is just the
first act. As he says: “I haven’t even started yet, folks”. It figures to be
one hell of a summer.
---
1 - since the present
electoral college vote became 538 after the admittal of Alaska and Hawaii in
1959.
Saturday, April 30, 2016
It’s Indiana or Bust for the Stop-Trump Movement (Seriously This Time)
by Erich Straub (contributing editor)
Desperate times call for desperate measures, and the NeverTrump movement is getting really, really desperate. The calendar of states is running out and Trump is inching closer and closer to what seems like an inevitability. That’s exactly the narrative he is trying to paint, and it’s working, much to the chagrin of the establishment which has reluctantly staked its hopes of stopping him on Ted Cruz and/or John Kasich, and/or insert any name that doesn’t rhyme with thump.
The two men left standing, who have for weeks been splitting the non-Trump vote, have now come right out and announced that they will form an alliance – sort of – to try to ensure that Trump does not get to the requisite number of 1,237 by July 17. Not only was the announcement clumsily handled, the alliance seems to be built on a faulty foundation. While Kasich has left Indiana to campaign in Washington and New Mexico, he didn’t exactly endorse the Texas senator. When asked if his supporters should vote for Cruz in the Hoosier state, he replied: “No, they should vote for me”.
And while there was talk of a possible Cruz-Kasich ticket to try to unify the party, that idea was scrapped yesterday when Cruz announced that Carly Fiorina would be his running mate (should he somehow get the nomination). Indeed the announcement was as strange as it was desperate. Only once has a candidate announced a vice presidential candidate before clinching the party’s nomination (Ronald Reagan in 1976) and Fiorina does not provide much contrast to Cruz’s rigid identity. Generally, a running mate is supposed to counterbalance the candidate who chooses him or her, and shore up their potential weaknesses. Example: LBJ (a veteran from Texas with establishment support) to JFK (a young outsider from Massachusetts). Fiorina does neither for Cruz.
She has proven to be a tenacious surrogate for the Cruz campaign since her own presidential aspirations folded after Iowa, but she is an ideologue who appeals to evangelicals and very conservative voters – both groups Cruz already has in his tent. His problem is that he can’t win over moderates or even voters who identify as “somewhat conservative”. Fiorina does nothing to help Cruz expand into these two areas. Rather, she seems to be a big hunk of red meat that Cruz is dangling in front of the Donald in hopes that he’ll take the bait and fall into another trap. Trump’s big problem is that women don’t like him, even republican women, and Cruz is hoping that Trump will be Trump and say something outrageous about her.
Remember, Trump made a series of gaffes leading up to Wisconsin and, instead of making a concession speech after losing, accused Cruz of cheating and began ranting about how the election process is rigged. His numbers began to slide and party leaders who were just starting to come to terms with him being the nominee reversed course and began repeating the warning calls: “You see, we told you! He’s too unstable!” This is Cruz’s only hope at this point. To say the last two weeks have been rough would be putting it mildly. He expected the northeast to be unfriendly territory, but even the most conservative forecasts did not predict the absolute massacre that unfolded.
Cruz won a grand total of 2 delegates in the six states that voted on April 19 and 26, compared to 203 for Trump, and just 11 for John Kasich. Cruz was shut out in five of the six and even failed to get a delegate in Rhode Island’s third district because he couldn’t crack the ridiculously low threshold of 10 percent. Trump pushed his delegate lead to what seems all but insurmountable by sweeping Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania, and taking nearly all of New York’s. Cruz’s response was almost as bad as his performance, as he held a rally in Indiana and made a painfully unfunny basketball reference to Trump’s delegate climb by referring to the hoop as a “ring”. That’s not how you win over Hoosiers.
In fact, the biggest surprise was Pennsylvania, a state that Cruz thought he could compete in. Polls predicted Trump would win but only with around 42-45% of the vote, instead he wound up with 57%. Consider this: Hillary won Pennsylvania by more than 12 points – that’s a “huge” win in a large, relatively diverse state. By county, she beat Sanders just 34-33. Donald Trump beat Cruz (and Kasich I guess) 67-0. He won every single county. He annihilated Ted Cruz, beating him in every category, even among voters who identify as “very conservative”. Is that a real sign that voters are consolidating around Trump, or due to the fact that he’s from the area? Indiana will give us the answer to that.
Another reason Cruz has to be discouraged: for perhaps the first time Trump’s campaign proved to have a ground game and outworked him for the actual delegates who were chosen in Pennsylvania, where 54 will go the convention unbound. In actuality, at least 39 of them are either Trump supporters or have pledged to support the candidate who won their district (Trump won all 15 congressional districts by wide margins). Only 6 are Cruz supporters and the other 9 have no preference.That means Trump has a bonus of roughly 40 delegates that could easily put him over the top if he doesn’t get to the magic number by the last primary day on June 7. And his path to 1, 237 which looked increasingly treacherous after Wisconsin, suddenly looks much straighter. Not easy by any stretch, but doable, particularly with Indiana in the bank.
With 30 delegates going to the statewide winner and 3 in each congressional district, whoever wins the Hoosier state figures to clear at least 42 and possibly upwards of all 57. That could likely be the difference between 1,237 outright for Trump and a messy convention vote which is the StopTrump’s only hope. So, Cruz is putting all of his chips (and essentially the NeverTrump movement’s as a whole) on Indiana. Polls show Trump with an 8 point lead, but those were taken before the Cruz-Kasich alliance and Fiorina announcements were made.
Indiana will be the first test for the newly formed StopTrump alliance, although not really considering that Rubio campaigned in Florida and told his supporters to vote for Kasich in Ohio, and Mitt Romney called for similar shenanigans in key states. Really, it’s a chance for Cruz who still has not proven that he’s anything more than a factional candidate, much like Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum who campaigned as alternatives to the moderate John McCain and Mitt Romney. Like both of them, Cruz has won with hard right, evangelicals, but can’t expand his support anywhere else. Aside from Maine, which held a tiny caucus, he has not won east of Kansas. Trump has swept the east, save for Ohio, the south, and also won in Midwestern states (Illinois, Michigan, and Missouri) and in the southwest (Arizona and Nevada).
And that’s the main reason why the NeverTrump movement is failing despite all of the resources the establishment has expended trying to derail him. First, Trump’s appeal is broader than experts thought and have continued to try to portray. No, he doesn’t have a majority, but his support cuts across demographics and provides enough support that he can win in different areas. Also, voters do seem to be consolidating around him – like it or not. And second, there is no credible alternative to him. There just aren’t enough republicans who are willing to take Ted Cruz instead, no matter how unpalatable Trump may be to them.
Nor are they willing to get behind John Kasich who continues to stake his campaign on the fact that he polls the best against Hillary in the fall. Indeed, those numbers are real and he would give the republicans the best chance at winning in November, but his argument is kind of like a basketball coach arguing that his team should be in the NCAA tournament because they have the best shot to win in March despite the fact that their record is 1-31. Kasich simply can’t win anywhere outside of his home state, and in the northeast where he was supposed to contend with Trump he did manage several second place finishes, but lost by ridiculously horrific margins for somebody who is supposed to be a credible candidate for the party’s nomination.
Even if he loses Indiana (which is a possibility) he may still get to 1,237 or so close that it’ll be near impossible for the RNC to deny him the nomination without severe consequences. But if Trump does win there (and he was endorsed by Bobby Knight who’s probably more popular there than Carly Fiorina) it will be the end of the StopTrump or NeverTrump or AnybodyButTrump (or however you want to classify it) movement. Then the RNC will likely conduct a post-primary autopsy and begin asking itself: What more could we have done? Was the alliance too late? Where do we go from here?
Trump declared himself the “presumptive nominee” at his press conference Tuesday night, a feeling not shared by the establishment or the NeverTrump movement, but increasingly by everyone else. The media is already ratcheting up the Hillary vs. Trump main event, and no doubt salivating at the ratings bonanza that it will be. Although Trump has an argument that many are against him, the media is certainly not one of them.
Also, increasingly voters seem to be resigning themselves to the fact that Trump will ultimately be the nominee – like it or not – and that’s one of the two main narratives Trump is painting: he is going to be the nominee, so they might as well stop fighting it and just embrace him already. This is a smart strategy. The bandwagon effect is real – people want to pick a winner even if it means following the crowd, so falling in line and voting for Trump is essentially the only way to go the closer he gets. Conversely, those who oppose him increasingly grow apathetic to their chances of stopping him, just give up, and decide to stay home. Trump can win by attrition, just as he’s done this entire primary.
Trump is also playing the “fight the system” narrative beautifully, claiming that he would already have the nomination sewn up if it wasn’t for a rigged system that “Lyin” Ted Cruz (and now “1 for 47” Kasich) are using to try to stop not just him, but also the will of the people. And it’s working, an NBC News poll found: 66% of respondents said they agree that the U.S. primary system is corrupt and favors party insiders, and more than half would like to see the system changed.
So not only is Trump winning and inevitably going to be the nominee, but the system is rigged and working against him to boot. Combine those two and it’s an increasingly uphill battle for the NeverTrump movement to not only beat him outright, but even to keep the nomination from him should he fall just short of the magic number. Exit polls from Pennsylvania show that nearly two thirds of primary voters believe Trump should be the nominee if he has the most delegates and most votes, even if he’s short of the majority.
Donald Trump likes to draw comparisons between himself and Ronald Reagan, but in actuality he owes more of his skill to the Richard Nixon School of politics. Indeed, despite all of his flaws, Trump has shown rare and incredible foresight and ability to seize on festering distrust and anger in the population and manipulate it – just as Nixon did in 1968. Fans at his rallies proudly wave signs that say: “The Silent Majority Stands with Trump” a nod to the phrase that Nixon famously coined.
But there is perhaps no better quote to encapsulate this election than one also made by Nixon, who once said: “Show me an organized campaign to stop Candidate X, and I’ll show you how Candidate X can win”. Well, Trump is Candidate X, and the campaign to stop him is running out of time, and the public is turning increasingly against it – even if they’re not in love with Trump himself. In fact, its last stand likely lies in Indiana where Cruz will need a “Save the Alamo” type rally to keep his slim hopes of the nomination alive, and out of the grasp of Trump’s ever closing hand.
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