Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Tipped Toward Recession?

James C. Cooper's article in Business Week caught my eye as the stock market dips, rallies, and dips again. It's only the brave who can weather the current volatility on Wall Street. For the rest of us, it's just an interesting academic game. Hell, the business economy affects us in invisible ways, doesn't it?

Whereas you don't have to have graduated from the Wharton School of Business to know what the Dollar Dive means. Means you can't buy nuttin'.

Cooper reads the economic indicators and concludes that the scales have tipped toward recession; the view is contrary to the Federal Reserve's view that risks to the economy are balanced. Cooper implies the Fed may shift its stance on December 11, basing his forecast on labor-market trends and rising oil prices. He points to job growth continuing, but at a slower pace than the rise in unemployment claims; other downdrafts on the economy include tighter credit markets and the prospect of oil at $100 a barrel. Cooper's is a sobering outlook, and a convincing one.
in BusinessWeek by James C. Cooper, 19 November 2007
Read more here...

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